Which matches should we bet on in order to win with a bookmaker? Important matches, friendly matches, Cup matches or maybe the ones which have the best value?

If you want to win in sports betting only matches with a good value will give you a chance to succeed.

It all depends if we play on the high odds or we bet at the so called “favourites”. In case of Cup or friendly matches better teams often use worse players or second squad. During this time coaches observe potential of players which later on could play in fist squads. Besides that the first squad has a chance to rest which is of a great importance if the squad has to play every 3 days. Unfortunately many players bet on teams with a known brand because it seems unreasonable to bet on a second league team if it is playing against a first league team. From my own experience I can say that it is not so simple. Of course if a player hits two matches out of 5 with the odds at 5,00-6,00 it is a lot easier for him to take a risk and play other matches with the high odds. If he loses 10 times in a row I think that he will stop to bet like this.

Is he making the right decision in this way? Yes and no because it is not the type of a match that is of a great importance but knowing the topic well (bookmakers knowledge). Amatour players tend to look for a system to play without focusing on the most important aspect which is value. In reality it is not important what do we play at but it is important for the odds to be higher than these proposed by bookmakers. For instance if one of bookmakers offers odds at 6,00 and the other at 4,00 one of them is wrong. It makes therefore sense to look closely at that match. Maybe you will be the one to assess the odds properly.

It is similar in a case of low odds. It is possible to find an interesting value and thanks to it we will be able to obtain mathematical advantage over a bookmaker. It is important to keep in mind that sports betting is made up of statistics and mathematics. Here we cannot be led by league, team’s name or our own sentiments. If your knowledge is able to adequately state the odds to a given situation and you will be closer to the truth than a bookmaker your budget should get higher. Statistics are cruel and they prove to be true in 99,99% in a longer run, in this case it is for our benefit.

Before betting we propose to tip experimentally the height of odds for a given match.It is best to pretend to be a bookmaker and state the odds for minimum of 500 matches to later on compare them with the ones set by bookmakers. Next we state the percentage differences of odds between us and bookmakers and this differences can be called our value. In case when a bookmaker is able to better state the odds it is better to study a little bit more or look for other leagues or sport type in which we might be able to be better. Otherwise we have to wish for luck, and we can forget about regularity in winning in sports betting.